Ukraine needs to bring home women who have gone abroad because of a full-scale war to restore the economy. Writes about it Bloomberg.
Most men between 18 and 60 are not allowed to leave the country, which explains why 68% of Ukrainian refugees are women, and among adults there is an even greater gender disparity.
According to Alexander Isakov of Bloomberg Economics, if 2.8 million working-age women cannot be persuaded to return, it will cost Ukraine 10% of its annual pre-war gross domestic product. That’s $20 billion a year in the worst case scenario.
“That would easily outweigh the European Union’s four-year aid package for Ukraine, worth 12.5 billion euros annually,” the publication says.
As Deputy Minister of Economy Tatyana Berezhnaya noted, the most important task now for Ukraine, for the Ukrainian authorities is to do everything possible so that women with children return to their men and unite in Ukraine.
The government is planning a post-war recovery with ambitious goals of doubling the size of the economy by 2032. However, the Ministry of Economy notes that 4.5 million workers and entrepreneurs are not enough to achieve this goal.
Ukrainian refugees and internally displaced persons make up a third of the total population of the country, who lived in the territory that the government controlled before the start of the war. Some internally displaced persons may contribute to the country’s economy, but those abroad begin to adapt to a new place of residence, work there and begin to contribute to the development of other countries.
Some refugees may return, according to Bloomberg’s analysis, but this could become more difficult over time as the war goes on. It is noted that after the end of the last war in Bosnia in the 1990s, only ten years later, half of the two million refugees and internally displaced persons managed to return home.
Economist Oleksandr Isakov suggests that if Ukraine can convince half of all refugees to return, it could cost the country about $10 billion a year, or 5% of GDP, given that some men and families move in with women who choose to stay abroad.
- In support of the citizens of Ukraine who left the country as a result of the war, the governments of European states have already allocated more than 43 billion euros.
ource : finance.liga.net